Born and raised in Argentina, Mr. Smith colors his writing and presentations with a bi-cultural international perspective.
Mr. Smith earned his bachelor’s degree with honors in economics from Dartmouth College and his master’s degree in finance with distinction from the Stanford Graduate School of Business. Following graduation from Dartmouth in 1962, Mr. Smith served as an officer in the U.S. Navy, aboard a destroyer on the perimeter of the Cuban Quarantine during the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962, and in 1964 was assigned as a Naval Gunfire Liaison Officer to the 3rd Marine Division in Okinawa and Danang, South Vietnam, later transferred to 2nd ANGLICO in Camp Le Jeune, NC, including parachute training at Ft. Benning, GA, mustering out in 1966 as a Lieutenant, USN.
His broad perspective on the world economy and financial markets was gained through a 35-year career in the financial arena, including securities analysis with Wells Fargo Bank and Shuman Agnew (an NYSE-member firm later acquired by Morgan Stanley) in San Francisco; mergers and acquisitions in aviation with Bangor Punta Corporation in Connecticut, parent company of Piper Aircraft Corporation among others; and back in San Francisco as a financial planner with Capital Analysts, a national NASD-member firm; national securities underwriting as president and CEO of Alma Securities, an NASD-member firm, and more than two decades as a newsletter writer and public speaker in San Francisco and Houston, TX.
As author of Cyclical Investing for 24 years he achieved an uncanny record of accurate predictions, including:
- The 1986 oil price crash and subsequent booming economy and financial markets
- The 1987 stock market crash. Exit signal given October 16, 1987, 3 days before the crash
- Rebounding economy and stock market. Re-entry signal Oct. 31, 1987, eleven days after the crash
- The 1990-91 Gulf War, oil-price spike, stock market slump and recession
- The sluggish stock market in 1994
- The resumption of the bull market in 1995
- The peak in the stock market in 2000. Exit signal given January 4, 2000, re-entered Spring 2003
- The recession of 2001
- The bull market in gold immediately following 9/11/01, buy signal at $300/oz
- The devaluation of the dollar beginning in 2002
- The Third Oil Shock beginning in 2003 and ensuing inflation
- The economic and stock market rebound in 2003. Re-entry signals April-June 2003
- The Panic of 2008 and subsequent stock market plunge and recession
As author of The Cassandra Chronicles, Mr. Smith offered subscribers insightful geopolitical commentary on a broad range of subjects including the War in Iraq, previous Wars of Religion (including the Reformation, the Arab Empire, the Crusades and the Ottoman Empire); the British Mesopotamian Campaign during World War I; modern monetary, fiscal and tax policies; global oil markets; the Asian economic and financial challenge; the Panic of 2008 and subsequent recovery. (Click here to view back issues.)
He ceased publishing Cyclical Investing in July 2008, and The Cassandra Chronicles in 2009 to dedicate his full attention to writing economic analysis and geopolitical commentary in books and blogging in The Cassandra Chronicles.
He has written The Predicament — How did it happen? How bad is it? The case for radical change now! in which he explains how the present economic, financial and political dysfunctions emerged after the relatively balanced and prosperous Eisenhower years. He reveals “where the bodies are buried” and makes the case for a radical change of direction to avoid further economic, financial and social deterioration; to restore the solvency, prosperity and contentment of the middle class; and to relieve the plight of the poor.
Identifying the root cause of the American Predicament as the hijacking of the democratic political process by a rich and powerful elite, Mr. Smith proposes a completely new democratic political process to bypass Big Money and television to return the government to the service of We The People.
Look for his forthcoming companion book: “The Egyptian Solution — And Other Lessons of History to Get Us Out of This Mess,” to be published in paperback and e-book format in early 2014.